Feb 6, 2021 9:00 AM

Sad QAnon Followers Are at a Precarious Pivot Point

Disillusioned after Biden was sworn in, conspiracy theorists could now be swayed back to reality by conservatives and family members—or toward darker fringes.

The QAnon conspiracy theory, spread in large part through social media, was recently supported by a majority of Republican voters. It is, at its baseless and thoroughly debunked core, the idea that a cabal of Satan-worshipping, cannibalistic, baby-eating pedophiles is operating an international child-sex-trafficking ring from their positions of power. It has grown to encompass many other conspiracy theories, especially around Covid, vaccines, and the election. Donald Trump was held up as a cult-like savior and was the group’s main source of guidance.

Now that the Biden administration has begun, the prophecies of QAnon did not come to pass, and Trump has left for Mar-a-Lago, what’s next? Research into similar groups tells us that, if QAnon followers are to leave the world of conspiracy theories, they need a dignity-preserving path forward. Extremist groups are already working to fill the Q-shaped void by recruiting QAnon believers to their own causes, making it urgent that better alternatives step up. That requires understanding the needs and motives of QAnon followers and providing a viable “off-ramp” from the QAnon world view.

While QAnon has been around since 2017, its popularity skyrocketed in March 2020 when the country entered lockdown and people's uncertainty, insecurity, and free time skyrocketed. Born on the internet, it spread from 8chan/8kun to a much larger base via Facebook and Twitter. In the aftermath of the insurrection, Twitter alone shut down 70,000 accounts linked to QAnon.

Its appealed to people in large part because it offered them what they needed psychologically. People join cults and buy into conspiracy theories because they are dissatisfied with their lives, they lack security, and they want to feel good about themselves and their identity groups. The online dynamics of QAnon provided this. Followers crawled posts and online data sources for clues to solve the mysteries posed by the group. They shared their theories and were rewarded with engagement and the sense of being in a community of like-minded people. Seeing patterns connecting Q's posts to real events felt like discovering secret information. If Q, the anonymous alleged government insider whose information drops launched and fueled the conspiracy theory, posted a photo of a watch with a short comment, his followers would enhance the watch image to see the time and date, interpret what it could mean, connect any bits of text to previous Q posts, and then offer interpretations on the connections. Solving mysteries and the community support made them feel smart. It offered a sense of purpose and control in a time where those things were scarce.

Now that reward is mostly gone. Q has gone silent since early December. When President Joe Biden was inaugurated and the Trump presidency ended with none of the prophesized mass arrests of the government, the foundations of the QAnon belief system came crumbling down. Some prominent QAnon supporters are distancing themselves. Marjorie Taylor Greene, the US representative from Georgia who was an active online supporter of QAnon and other conspiracy theories, has been removed from her Congressional committee appointments. Though she tweeted about "anti-Trump pedos" as recently as January 31, 2021, she disavowed these beliefs as she defended herself before Congress days later. The failed prophecy, external evidence contradicting the internal narrative, and the resulting disillusionment and cynicism are all core elements necessary for people to abandon cults and conspiracy theories. We need to take advantage of this moment.

Some QAnon followers remain steadfast, shifting the goalposts, looking for clues in old Q posts that connect to current events. For example, on February 15, 2018, Q posted the line "Watch the water." In the past few weeks, as the reddit group WallStreetBets pushed up the stock price of GameStop, a Q follower found a dictionary definition of "water" that included a financial usage relating to inflating the value of an asset, which launched a discussion about whether Q's original post may have predicted the GameStop fiasco (or the many other things it may have predicted). However, for some Q followers, grasping this desperately for meaning is too much. Many are realizing they were lied to. When followers turn away from Q, what will they turn toward? There are several obvious paths.

While many are abandoning Q, they are not necessarily abandoning Trump. He could offer them a lifeline that doesn't include the baby-eating cabal but that does pull them deeper into a cult-of-personality-style political movement. Thanks largely to his social media deplatforming, Trump has been relatively silent since the insurrection. If he decides to reactivate and marshal his supporters, this may be an attractive path for the former QAnon adherents.

We already see white supremacy groups intentionally working to recruit disillusioned QAnon followers in their online spaces, offering a humiliation-free path of acceptance and radicalization. Some followers are also shifting to the belief system of groups like the Sovereign Citizens Movement, whose ideas had crept into the QAnon mythology. There is now a great risk for QAnon followers to become more extreme by devoting their energies and time to these more extreme groups.

But there is also an opportunity to bring them onto a path leading back to facts and reality. Research shows that merely insulting or humiliating cult members is unlikely to lead to defection. Leading followers from QAnon requires an off-ramp from QAnon, and Trump, that preserves their dignity and offers purpose that will fulfill some of the emotional and psychological needs that the QAnon community was formerly satisfying.

Because distrust of liberals and the media was fundamental to Trump and Q, it falls to conservatives to engage the QAnon followers. Conservatives can have some credibility and an opportunity, especially if they look for real issues that connect to the underlying concerns of the QAnon base. If they can also offer online communities with online activities that make the followers feel valuable and smart—a major attraction of the QAnon world—they could successfully give followers an out that leads them back to a space of truth. Unfortunately, there are no conservative groups obviously stepping up on Q-based social media to make this offer yet. The challenge they would face is a big one. Deradicalization efforts around the world have mixed results, and most experience with them has been with people in prison, not on the internet. There is very limited experience with these kinds of programs focusing on US citizens, so efforts to bring QAnon followers back to the mainstream would require new and creative steps.

Friends and family members may offer another path, helping followers turn away from the conspiracy theory and back toward "normal" life. Advice about helping family members who are leaving cults may apply here as well. Family members should offer many small doses of evidence that can help sow doubt or disillusionment with Q. A dramatic intervention, however, is unlikely to be effective, since it often leads to entrenching beliefs. Avoid arguments, judgment, criticism, or humiliation. Share testimonials from people who have abandoned Q. Emphasize that the followers were lied to and that they are victims of those lies—the sense of victimhood is already prevalent among Q followers. This process of de-cultification requires patience and suppressing justified anger, recriminations, and frustration. It also may not work, but it is grounded in the best professional advice on bringing people back out of a cult.

Fueled by lies and disinformation from online message boards and Trump himself, the power of the QAnon community should not be underestimated, even if its veracity is limited. QAnon followers drove the insurrection at the Capitol, and the conspiracy theory has infiltrated all levels of the Republican party. As QAnon crumbles, its adherents will not disappear with it. What they turn to next will shape conservative politics for years to come. Bringing them back to a space where they operate on truth and facts is critical. Mainstream groups must enter their online spaces and offer them alternatives. If they fail, extremists are already working to recruit them.

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